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One of the provinces that has potential in  agricilture is East Java, where based on BPS data mention Malang is the region that is able to give  the largest contribution of rice and corn production in Malang East Java. Rainfall is one of the most important factors in the production process of rice and corn, so rainfall forecasting is needed to support government policy in handling food issue especially related to rainfall problem. The method used for forecasting rainfall for a series of time is Autiregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The results show that the best model for rainfall forecasting Malang Jawa Timur is SARIMA (1,1,1)(2,1,0)¹² , the model indicates that seasonal pattern on rainfall data in Malang Jawa Timur. Then to repair error using Kalman Filter and rainfall prediction one year ahead. And to know a series of pattern of relationship between rainfall and rice production using an estimation of Copula parameter which is used as an illustration in an effort to increase productivity to rice and corn production in Malang Regency of East Java

Kalman Filter, Rice Production, Rainfall, SARIMA, Copula, Malang Jawa Timur