Open Conference Systems, MISEIC 2019

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The Impact of MJO propagation on Rainfall in Indonesia
Adi Ramses Sagala

Last modified: 2019-07-10

Abstract


MJO propagation along the equator has an influence on weather phenomena. The maritime continent which is in phase 4 and 5 of MJO is associated with rain in the Indonesian region but several studies show that MJO phase 3 also has an impact on the territory of Indonesia, especially western Indonesia. This study aims to identify the impact of MJO on rainfall in Batam, Cengkareng, Sepinggan, Manado, and Jayapura. Research uses rainfall data observations from 2010-2016. The time period studied was focused on December, January and February. The evaluation results show that in these months MJO is often found active. The rainfall data was then composite based on MJO active in phases 3, 4 and 5. The results of the study showed that MJO phase 3 in the areas of Batam, Sepinggan, and Manado positively associated with an increase in daily rainfall in the region. MJO phase 4 is positively associated in the Batam and Jayapura regions. MJO phase 5 is positively associated in the Manado and Jayapura regions. MJO has a significant influence on the increase in rainfall based on the phase passed but cannot be a single factor causing rain. Likewise local factors can hinder the impact of the MJO in a region.


Keywords


MJO; rainfall; composite