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In Indonesia, the COVID-19 virus spreads very fast from one person to another. This causes the number of people with COVID-19 in Indonesia continues to grow every day. East Java has become the new epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia. An increase  new cases of COVID-19 per day would certainly be a challenge for the government of East Java. This is because Surabaya Raya, which is the largest contributor to cases in East Java, has conducted Large-Scale Social Restrictions (Pembatasan Sosial Skala Besar = PSBB) since the end of April 2020. The East Java Government has also taken precautions by isolating both the carrier and suspect COVID-19. Therefore, the estimated rate and pattern of transmission or the pattern of spread of new cases is very important for the government to determine the policies that are visible and right decisions.
One of the relevant methods for analyzing the rate of new cases of a disease is to use multiple linear regression involving isolation factors of both the carrier and suspect COVID-19 for prevention. The result shows that suspect COVID-19, which is a patient under surveillance (Pasien dalam pengawasan = PDP), was a significant factor in the emergence of new cases of COVID-19 in East Java, Indonesia.

COVID-19, Multiple linear regression, isolation