Open Conference Systems, MISEIC 2018

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Predicting Final Result of Football Match Using Poisson Regression Model
Hafis Rialdy Azhari, Yekti Widyaningsih, Dian Lestari

Last modified: 2018-07-07

Abstract


In any sport competition, there is a strong interest in knowing which team shall be the champion at the end of the championship and one of them is football. Football match predictions are of great interest to fans and sports press. In the last few years it has been the focus of several studies. In this paper, we propose Poisson regression model to predict the final result of football matches. We predict the average goals scored by each team by assuming that the number of goals scored by a team in a match follows a univariate Poisson distribution. Poisson regression model is formulated from four covariates: the goal average in a match, the home-team advantage, the team's offensive power, the opponent team's defensive power. The methodology is applied to the 2017-2018 English Premier League.


Keywords


Football; English Premier League; Poisson Distribution; Poisson Regression Model